The northwest high plains just can’t seem to hang on to above normal temperatures for any length of time this year. Today and Monday will see reading bounce into the 80s and 90s, then immediately slap back down to 60s and 70s. The next chance of 80s will be around the 25th ahead of a couple of strong storm systems. Rainfall will be generally sparce this week… but be copious next week.

It looks like the Upper Midwest and northwest High Plains have seen the last of winter. The cold air is rapidly retreating to northern Canada, but its going to take a while for hot air to boil up from the south.

The result: A long spring. Temperatures are going to average in the 60s for highs and 30s for lows for North Dakota, South Dakota, eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming through the end of the month. The warmest weather will be the middle of next week and again then middle of the following week.. when temperatures might reach into the low 80s.

Lake Oahe is way above normal. By month’s end the reservoir is expected to be 10 feet above normal — but the Army Corps of Engineers has been forecasting too little water inflow for the last few years. All that money that was spent on boat docks over the past couple of years because it was supposedly going to take years for the lake to refill. Its gone up 49 feet in 3 years. Your humble forecaster – here – predicted a fast recovery and the government snorted at the thought.

It’s a nice weekend with tamperatures in the 50s and 60s. More rain is on the way for Monday as an upper air disturbance passes overhead. Right now it looks like widely scattered light showers and Monday’s highs will only tops out in the 40s and 50s.

There’ll be a small threat of showers on Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry. Highs both days will be in the 50s. There might be a sprinkle or two Thursday, but then Friday will be partly cloudy. Highs Thursday and Friday will nudge back into the 60s.

A rain – snow mix will redevelop over most of Wyoming today, spreading eastward across western South Dakota, south Montana and southwest North Dakota tonight. Snow levels will drop to 3200 feet tonight across SE Montana, NW South Dakota, NE Wyoming and the Black Hills. The heaviest snow will fall in a band about 50 miles wide from Kaycee Wyo. to Buffalo  SoDak where as much as a foot will accumulate.

The heavy snow will spread northeast Sunday along and axis through Bismarck and Devils Lake.  Snow showers will be scattered across Montana Sunday.  Scattered rain showers will be over  most of Wyoming below 5000 ft, except over the far north and northwest here rain showers will be mingled with snow showers. Western South Dakota, south of the main band of snow, and central South Dakota, will have a mix of rain and snow showers.

There will be a threat of rain and snow showers most of next week, mainly across Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota. Temperatures will average 5 degrees below normal.

One of the great things about spring around here is the variability. For instance:

Temperatures today will reach into the 70s across North Dakota, South Dakota,  Wyoming and much of Montana. Readings will reach into the 80s across much of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota and western Nebraska.

Thursday, the 80s will continue over much of Nebraska, the southeast half of Wyoming, southwest, central and eastern South Dakota. Readings will climb close to 90 over western Nebraska and southcentral Nebraska. Meanwhile, a powerful cold front will drop temperatures into the 40s across most of Montana and northwest Wyoming. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the area the temperature makes the sharp drop — from central and eastern Wyoming to eastern North Dakota. Snow will develop across central and northern Montana, spreading into the northeast part of the state by evening.

Snow showers will be likely Thursday night across western North Dakota and much of Montana. Showers and thundershowers will be Wyoming and across western and central South Dakota into central North Dakota.

Friday will be an interesting day. Snow showers will be scattered across Montana and western North Dakota while scattered showers and a few thundershowers will be found over Wyoming, South Dakota and North Dakota, spreading into Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. Highs across Nebraska will continue in the 70s, with 50s and 60s over most of South Dakota and southeast Wyoming, and 40s and 50s over western North Dakota and most of Montana.

A band of heavy wet snow will develop across northern and central Wyoming Friday evening and spread across northwest and north-central South Dakota, reaching northwest Minnesota by daybreak Saturday. 4 to 8 inches of snow will fall in that band. Showers and thundershowers will be south of this area of snow… as far south as Colorado and Nebraska.

Saturday, measureable snow will fall over southwest South Dakota and southeast Wyoming, as well as part of the Nebraska panhandle — with scattered snow showers over the rest of Wyoming and western South Dakota. Highs will be in the 30s where the bulk of the snow falls, with 40s  over Montana and North Dakota, and 50s and 60s over central Nebraska.

60s return Saturday, May 2.

We begin a significant warm up this week with temperatures climbing into the 60s across northern Montana and North Dakota – with perhaps a few 70s poking around. Showers will be possible all week, becoming most likely Thursday through Saturday.

Across Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska temperatures will soar into the 80s Wednesday through Friday. Some areas my hit 90 across western Nebraska and southwest or south-central South Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms will sprout Friday and Saturday. It’s too early to tell how much, if any, snow will fall on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures zipped up into the 60s Monday and that’s forcing a lot of snow to melt. As a result most of northwest South Dakota, north of I-90 is under a flood warning.

The western Black Hills and the Black Hills of Wyoming are under a flood watch.

Elm, Elk, Hay and Deep Creeks are all rising, as is the Belle Fourche River. The streams, and others, will rise dramatically through Tuesday.

Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Apr 11-13: Large storm system develops southern plains and begins to move northward. Widespread heavy rain, severe storms TX, OK, LA, AR, KS, MO. Isolated showers northern plains.

Apr 12-13: Widespread showers, thunderstorms IA.. T-storms with severe weather MO, TX, OK, AR, LA, IL. Locally heavy rains, widespread damage likely.

Apr 15-18: Slow moving storm system will spread rain showers across SD, ND, NE, E WY, IA, NE, KS, IA and MN. Rainfall will be 0.20 to 1.00 inch. Band of snow will develop over W SD and the Nebraska panhandle. Up to a foot of snow will be possible in some areas.

Apr 21-23: Widespread showers WY, MT, ND, SD, MN and WI, dry for the southern Plains.

Apr 23-28: Scattered showers and thunderstorms all areas but TX. Some severe weather is possible OK, KS, AR, LA, MO.

It certainly won’t be of biblical proportions… but flooding is on the way for western South Dakota and areas of North Dakota. Warm temperatures will be melting snow like crazy this weekend and a few light rain showers Sunday will add to the runoff.

Other than the snow melt, we really won’t have a LOT to worry about until Tuesday and Wednesday when there will be a big jump in water levels. Much of the five-state area will pick up one-quarter to two-thirds of an inch of rain Wednesday, all of which will drain into watersheds.

Thursday and Friday – then lingering into the weekend – may be a huge headache as a storm system winds up over Nebraska. The storm will bring more rain to North Dakota and South Dakota Thursday (with only light showers over Wyoming and Montana). Friday, however, could see 2 to 6 inches of new snow for western South Dakota.

Forecast: If you live in an area that is close to a river or stream – prepare for the flood. It’s going to happen.

A fast moving storm system will pass over the area tonight and Thursday, bring rain and snow to southeast Montana, western South Dakota and much of Wyoming, then spreading southeast across Nebraska. Snow will fall above 3500 feet with a streak of 4 to 7 inches southeast of Lame Deer to Sundance and then across the central Black Hills to near Kyle. Lighter snow amounts will be measured outside of this area and below 3500 feet.

Small pockets of heavier rain (up to 0.70″) will be possible over southwest and south central South Dakota.

Friday will bring partly cloudy skies and temperatures will be mainly in the 40s. Rain showers will move in from the west Saturday and linger on Easter with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. There will likely be a few inches of snow above 5000 feet Saturday night.