It is awfully hard to shake the cold weather this year. Usually, at least across the western Dakotas, eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming we can eek out a couple of days in January and February when the temperature zips into the 50s. That’s been pretty close to impossible this year.

After a fresh coating of snow, temps will bounce into the 20s and 30s today, Saturday and Sunday — although a lot of the heat from the sun will be bounced back into space by the fresh snow. Still, there will be enough energy to melt the snow on most roads.

A small pocket of very cold air will ooze out of Canada Sunday across North Dakota and overspread South Dakota and Minnesota Monday. It will hang around through Tuesday and then ease out of the area Wednesday. The air will be cold enough for afternoon readings to hover in the teens and overnight lows dive below zero. The usual suspects (viz Aberdeen) will probably have lows in the teens below zero.

We might see temperatures in the 40s Friday and Saturday (the 12th and 13th) before the next shot of snow arrives for Valentines Day.

Moisture flung northward from the Gulf of Mexico is combing with an upper air disturbance to lob a bunch of snow at the northern High Plains today through Friday. Most of the snow will fall on the southern Black Hills. Light accumulations are forecast for eastern Montana and North Dakota. Here’s the breakdown of the forecast (snow totals by 8am Friday)…

8″… Custer, 7″ Hill City and Edgemont, 6″ for Hermosa
5″… Rapid City, Black Hawk, New Underwood, Pine Ridge, Piedmont, Sturgis
4″… Lead-Deadwood, Whitewood, Union Center
3.5″… Spearfish and Sundance
2″… Devil’s Tower, Buffalo, Lemmon, Faith

Another round of snow will move up from the south Thursday, laying down a blanket of 2 to 5 inches across South Dakota, Nebraska, far eastern Wyoming and far southern North Dakota. The bulk of the snow will be over by noon Friday although a coating of snow will fall Friday afternoon and Friday night.

Don’t look for an early Spring warm up. I think our first 60 degree temperatures will hold off until early March. Plenty of cold air remains over northern North America and we still have several chances at seeing widespread sub-zero temperatures.

Pauxatawny Phil poked his head out and saw no shadow – a supposed sign of an early spring.

Cold air is still lurking over the Arctic but it looks like the jet stream will keep the chilly flow over the Great Lakes and the Northeast U.S., skirting just east of the Northern Plains. In a way, that’s good news for those of us who really would like to see some milder air.

But, it also means we avoid the clash of the air masses and that means we also avoid big snow snowstorms. It’s not in our immediate future, but we will likely be back in that stormy weather pattern sometime in late February or early March as warmer air starts to surge northward. That warmth has yet to show itself, however – which is a little odd.

In the short term – there will be a coating to 3″ of snow snow across Nebraska and much of South Dakota Thursday through Friday along a weak frontal boundary. Otherwise… it will be pretty quiet around here for the next week.

February has arrived and that means only 29 days are left of meteorological winter. Spring is right around the corner!

No major storm systems are on the radar for this week but we’ll have to keep an eye on the rest of the month as storm system after storm system rakes the west west coast. As these work their way across the Rockies they will lose most of their punch, but one or two may make the trip still packing enough energy to give us a quick half-foot of snow.

Any though of a no-snow Olympics will quickly whither by the time the torch makes its run to Vancouver February 12. These storm systems will keep a steady flow of snow and sleet going – along with strong winds. I think Olympians will find the weather to be as much a challenge as they will the competition.

The weather is going to be seasonably chilly for the next week – then turn stormy again.

Other some light snow (1 to 2 inches worth) Sunday and Monday,  it will be quiet through February 4. Temperatures will hover at or just a little below normal.

By the end of next week a series of storm systems will be pounding the west coast, bring heavy rain, heavy snow and strong wind to areas west of the Divide. That moisture will gradually punch across the Rockies and reach the Great Plains. It looks like the greatest threat for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be in the time frame of February 8 to 11.

Strong north winds will howl across the Plains today on the backside of a weather system that has brought blizzard conditions to eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The wind will gust to 55 mph today across North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska, then tame down just after sunset.

The rest of the week will be quiet with just a few snow showers possible – but temperatures will be colder than normal.

Well, where’s Autumn? Cold air is piling up in Canada but the warm air south of 50N across North America doesn’t want to budge very much.

The only things we see that could be affecting the weather pattern is a warm spot in the Pacific that developed in early August around 40N 140W and one over the North Atlantic near 45N 55W. The Pacific one cooled a couple of weeks ago but there is some sort of time lag going on.

One thing is for sure, the North Pacific is cooling so the jet stream should take a dive south across North America at some point. We’re betting the computer models don’t have a solid clue as to what’s going on and the long range models will do an abrupt shift in their predictions within a couple of days to a cooler forecast.

El Nino is still in play and looks to be weak to moderate at this point.

It’s a cool start to the day for much of the northwest high plains. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s this weekend, then warm back into the 80s for most of next week and the first part of the holiday weekend.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be around Monday afternoon through Wednesday. A couple of those may be severe, but certainly nothing widespread is expected.  The first late summer / early fall storm system organizes over the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies on Friday and Saturday. The initial affect will be to pump warm air into our region.

It will also pump in moisture from the tropical Pacific.. which means high and mid level cloudiness to dim the sun, along with a few showers and thundershowers for Friday, Saturday and part of Sunday. The first cold front pushes through Labor Day, another late Tuesday and another Wednesday. All of these are associated with the remnants of Bill coming by North America.

The big change is coming mid-September – around the 15th. That still looks like our first chance for some snow and record cold.

The last chance for 100 degree temps will come just before Labor Day – on September 3 and 4 — and even that is a big, big long shot. If you haven’t had 100 degree weather yet this year, that means you will have to wait until 2010.

Cold air continues to build in Canada and its only a matter of time before the first freeze. The big player in all of this is the remnants of hurricane Bill. It will come back around to North America (via Scandinavia and Russia) sometime around September 3. If it is still strong enough, that storm system could suck down a chunk of Arctic air. I still have a feeling the Black Hills will pick up its first snow around September 15.