Well, where’s Autumn? Cold air is piling up in Canada but the warm air south of 50N across North America doesn’t want to budge very much.

The only things we see that could be affecting the weather pattern is a warm spot in the Pacific that developed in early August around 40N 140W and one over the North Atlantic near 45N 55W. The Pacific one cooled a couple of weeks ago but there is some sort of time lag going on.

One thing is for sure, the North Pacific is cooling so the jet stream should take a dive south across North America at some point. We’re betting the computer models don’t have a solid clue as to what’s going on and the long range models will do an abrupt shift in their predictions within a couple of days to a cooler forecast.

El Nino is still in play and looks to be weak to moderate at this point.

It’s a cool start to the day for much of the northwest high plains. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s this weekend, then warm back into the 80s for most of next week and the first part of the holiday weekend.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be around Monday afternoon through Wednesday. A couple of those may be severe, but certainly nothing widespread is expected.  The first late summer / early fall storm system organizes over the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies on Friday and Saturday. The initial affect will be to pump warm air into our region.

It will also pump in moisture from the tropical Pacific.. which means high and mid level cloudiness to dim the sun, along with a few showers and thundershowers for Friday, Saturday and part of Sunday. The first cold front pushes through Labor Day, another late Tuesday and another Wednesday. All of these are associated with the remnants of Bill coming by North America.

The big change is coming mid-September – around the 15th. That still looks like our first chance for some snow and record cold.

The last chance for 100 degree temps will come just before Labor Day – on September 3 and 4 — and even that is a big, big long shot. If you haven’t had 100 degree weather yet this year, that means you will have to wait until 2010.

Cold air continues to build in Canada and its only a matter of time before the first freeze. The big player in all of this is the remnants of hurricane Bill. It will come back around to North America (via Scandinavia and Russia) sometime around September 3. If it is still strong enough, that storm system could suck down a chunk of Arctic air. I still have a feeling the Black Hills will pick up its first snow around September 15.

Starting to rethink the Labor Day weekend forecast. The remnants of Bill will have made back to North America by that time. Might be a big late summer/early fall storm followed by a cold snap.

Boy, it was a muggy night  – sort of like a typical August is 150 miles to the east. Temps yesterday bounced into the 90s and overnight lows slipped only into the low 70s in many areas. The big heat today and Tuesday will be over eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas where temps will be well into the 90s… some places close to 100.

Looks like showers and thunderstorms will be around but it will be, by no means, a washout. The chance of getting wet today will be very small. But that changes tomorrow for the Black Hills. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely over southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Temps will hang in the 70s and 80s and above normal rainfall is likely through the second week of September. Then the cool air will filter in from the northwest. All-in-all, a nice end to the summer.

The window for opportunity for 90s and low 100s across North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming and Nebraska has shifted slightly to August 23 to 28. It looks like the warmest temperatures will be in the mid or upper 90s.

The northwest high plains has one more shot at 100 degree heat before cooler air starts to filter in and takes over.

That stretch from August 24 to  30 will bring highs in the 90s and low 100s to much of North Dakota, most of South Dakota and Nebraska, most of Wyoming and much of Montana. As the ground and plants dry out, the fire danger will increase to the extreme or red flag level throughout the region.

Thankfully, the nights are getting longer, so low temperatures should cool off well into the 60s and 50s for some overnight relief from what promises to be the longest streak of hot weather this season across the region.

Yes, it looks like a case of EAO this year. Cold air is building over northern Canada and will make occasion incursions into the western and northern U.S. beginning the third week of August.

Temperatures will zip into the 90s and close to 100 but only for a couple of days at a time, certainly no long stretches at a time. And, the wild fires burning from California to the Yukon will also dim the sunshine, which in turn will tone down the heat.

Look for the tree leaves to start getting that rough, harder sound within the next couple of weeks. The bugs are already noisy.

Temperatures in the 90s will make another Sturgis Rally appearance on Friday, but it looks like for one day only. Next chance – Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and then Sunday, August 16 through Thursday the 20th.

Temperatures will continue to teeter across the Northern High Plains between 70s and low 90s until about August 9, when 90s will become more common.

It looks like there will be a short streak of days when the temperature will top 100 degrees – sometime between August 15 and 22.

Generally speaking, rainfall will be sparse – mainly in sporadic showers and thunderstorms and not widespread. The danger of grass fires will increase dramatically during the next few weeks. As we get into early September and the weather systems become more active, the threat of grass fires will become even greater as the wind kicks up between weather systems.